Wow… you are reading this article, what a coincidence… or is it? 

Have you ever walked through a city of millions and bumped into a long-lost friend? Or dreamt of something that weirdly happened the following day? You were thinking about a friend and suddenly your phone starts ringing with that friend's name on the screen. What a coincidence right? Throughout our lives we have experienced all sorts of coincidences, or random events - those moments where chance encounters or seemingly unrelated events collide in a way that feels oddly meaningful, those bizarre intersections of events that defy the odds and spark a sense of "wow, that's crazy!". Are these actually random coincidences, blips in the vastness of existence, or is there something more? And can we have more? We understand that as Buddhist we are supposed to construe all worldly phenomenon and events as elaborate manifestations of cause-and-effect interplays. Given this, how is a Buddhist thinker to make sense of coincidence. If causes lead to effects, then what leads to coincidental effects – coincidental causes? Mindboggling, isn’t it? Well, let’s try to make sense of this, today.

At its core, a coincidence is an occurrence of events that happen simultaneously by accident but seem to have some connection. The term itself derives from the Latin "co-" (together) and "incidere" (to fall), suggesting a falling together of events. While some coincidences are purely trivial, others can be so striking. Let us look at some famous historical examples.

The Lincoln-Kennedy Coincidences: The assassinations of Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy are often cited for their uncanny parallels. Both were elected to Congress in '46 and to the presidency in '60, were succeeded by men named Johnson, and were assassinated by men with three names consisting of 15 letters. 

Thomas Jefferson and John Adams: Both founding fathers and presidents of the United States, Jefferson and Adams, died on the same day, July 4, 1826, exactly 50 years after the signing of the Declaration of Independence. 

The Sinking of the Titan: In 1898, Morgan Robertson published "Futility," a novella describing the sinking of an "unsinkable" ocean liner named Titan. Fourteen years later, the Titanic sank under eerily similar circumstances. This coincidence is often seen as prophetic.

When faced with seemingly improbable events aligning perfectly, we grapple with two distinct interpretations. One view embraces a sense of interconnectedness, suggesting these occurrences are not random but somehow linked by fate or a deeper meaning which we may not be able to comprehend. It's the belief that the book and the ship sinking are related as if the book almost caused it to happen, the name of the ship is similar - all for a reason. This school of thought presumes the existence of a perfectly valid and logical explanation, albeit one that is incomprehensible through our present understanding of the world.

The other perspective sees it as pure chance, a fortuitous alignment of random events. The number of letters in the assassin's name, the dates of election and presidency, and the name of their succession were simply unrelated happenings that converged by chance. This view finds comfort in the simplicity of randomness, where the universe doesn't necessarily conspire to deliver messages - a simple accident of timing.

While both approaches offer plausible reasoning, they each have limitations. The "meaningful coincidence" view can lead to confirmation bias, fuelling a tendency to see connections even if none exist. Conversely, dismissing everything as a random event overlooks the possibility of deeper patterns or significance. Both viewpoints are feasible, yet both schools of thought also contain inherent flaws. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between these two extremes or maybe in a completely different way of thinking.

There's the intriguing concept of synchronicity. Pioneered by psychologist Carl Jung, synchronicity proposes that meaningful coincidences may reflect an underlying interconnectedness in the universe “acausal connecting principle". While not a scientific explanation, synchronicity resonates with those who find comfort or guidance in seemingly random events. Jung believed that synchronicities reveal underlying patterns in the universe, connecting the individual psyche with the larger world.

From a mathematical standpoint, coincidences are not as rare as they might seem. The field of probability provides tools to understand and quantify the likelihood of coincidental events. One of the classic illustrations of this is the birthday paradox. In a group of just 23 people, there is a better than even chance that two individuals share the same birthday. This counterintuitive result highlights how our intuitions about probability can be misleading. 

Another example is the law of large numbers, which states that given enough opportunities, even highly improbable events are likely to occur. For instance, if you flip a coin a million times, it is almost certain that you will get long sequences of heads or tails, like HHHHHHHHHHTTTTTTTTTTT but this doesn’t seem random at all, it seems almost a coincidence. HTTHHTTHTHTTTTHTTHT this sequence feels more random although each individual flip has a 50% chance of landing head or tails. Similarly, in our daily lives, the vast number of events and interactions increases the likelihood of seemingly improbable coincidences.

To delve deeper into the concept of coincidences, let's recall a scene from a film featuring a fighting panda, Kung Fu Panda, to be precise, particularly the interaction between Master Shifu and Master Oogway. When Master Shifu confronts Master Oogway and says that there seems to be an accident, Master Oogway responds, "There are no accidents." Although, this is a quote from a cartoon film, it takes nothing away from the profoundness of the statement. This implies that events are meant to happen as they do, suggesting there are no accidents and no coincidences. This also explains that there is a flaw in the concept of randomness.

Now, consider the example of a coin flip. Statistically, the probability of landing heads or tails is presumed to be 50%. However, research at Stanford has discovered a ‘dynamical bias in the coin toss’: the face that is initially facing up has a 51% chance of landing face up again. So is a coin flip not random enough to be fair? Does this 1% difference shatter the illusion of randomness?

It's tempting to dismiss this 1% as insignificant. But it raises a fascinating question: is true randomness even possible? This suggests that even events we perceive as random may have underlying patterns or influences.

Physics, the grand explainer of the universe's workings, might seem at odds with the idea of coincidence. After all, physics tells us about forces, motion, and energy – factors that, if fully understood, could seemingly predict any event. Through this discipline, we gain insights into the forces at play and can predict the outcomes of events. If we could meticulously account for all influencing factors, the exact force applied, the coin's centre of balance, and air resistance as well as the minute variations in finger flicks, tiny air currents, and microscopic imperfections on the coin's surface, we could scientifically determine the outcome of a coin flip. These seemingly insignificant details and chaotic, when combined, create a system so complex. But with all factors and lots of processing power with accuracy can predict the outcome. This prompts the question: is a coin flip truly random?

Advancements in technology have led to the creation of robots capable of flipping coins in controlled environments with absolute precision. These robots can consistently achieve predetermined results—whether heads, tails, or even landing on the edge—100% of the time. This demonstrates that, under controlled conditions and with sufficient understanding of the influencing factors, randomness can be eliminated. Thus, while coin flips may appear random to us, they are ultimately governed by physical laws and predictable under certain conditions.

The fundamental reality of the universe operates on the principle of Cause and Effect. When specific causes come together, they inevitably produce corresponding effects. Some causes are readily apparent and understood, while others remain unseen and unknown. To illustrate this concept simply, consider fire  – a seemingly random event. But science tells us it's not random at all, it's the result of a specific cause-and-effect chain. According to scientific understanding, fire requires three primary causes: oxygen, fuel, and a certain temperature (ignition temperature). While the actual process is intricate and involves countless variables, these three elements suffice for our example. When oxygen, fuel, and sufficient heat come together, fire is ‘made’ (for the avid readers of these articles will know and understand that the fire is not made, rather it manifests). There's no magic, just the predictable dance of cause and effect. This reaction is not happening through coincidence or randomness, but as a direct effect of these causes aligning. This principle echoes the Buddha's teaching that all phenomena arise from cause and effect.

Again another quote from Kung Fu Panda: ‘Look at this tree. I cannot make it blossom when it suits me, nor make it bear fruit before its time. No matter what you do, that seed (of peach) will grow to be a peach tree. You may wish for an apple or an orange, but you will get a peach.’

Think of the seemingly random event of bumping into an old friend in a popular restaurant. Millions of tiny independent causes might have played a role. They found out about the restaurant by some means, they were in the mood to go and they were in the area therefore in a broad aspect they were at the restaurant. You had got the idea to go to the restaurant for a certain reason and in the end, you found them. While we might not trace all these threads, they ultimately weave the event of your encounter.

Let's look at a real-life example. One of the monks at our monastery recently shared an intriguing story with me about how he came to listen to the Dhamma. Let's see if it was truly a coincidence. As a layman, he worked at a car dealership. One day, the company had just acquired a used car at a steal, and his boss sent him to inspect it and test drive it, a job that he wasn’t normally given as he was the financial manager. As he got into the car, he noted several areas in need of repair. Then, as he turned the key and the engine roared to life, he opened the glove compartment to check for the registration. Reaching for the registration, his fingers brushed a strange CD – no label, just something compelled him to listen. Uncharacteristically, he popped it in, as normally, he would have discarded it without a second thought.

When he inserted the CD into the player, a sermon filled the car. Religion wasn't his thing, and he rarely listened to sermons but the voice resonated deeply, as if he knew the speaker. He finished the talk during his break, the rest captivating him at home. The CD remained on the kitchen table that day, and his mother was drawn in and eventually started listening to it as well. As he frantically looked for more talks he found it within a few seconds as one sermon was on the YouTube homepage. 

Today, his brother, brother-in-law, and he himself are monks at our monastery, his nephew is an Anagarika, and their parents and other family members are frequent visitors. The entire family’s path changed because of a CD in a glove compartment. Their lives were touched by the message on a dusty disc. Was it a mere coincidence? Or a twist of fate that awakened an entire family?

Now, understanding the theory of cause and effect, we realise that nothing happens randomly or by fate. Instead, every event is the result of countless causes coming together. From the car arriving at the dealership to the boss handing it over, and from discovering the CD to listening to its contents—all these are effects stemming from preceding causes. These are both isolated discrete incidents and in the broader context of the universe, they are interconnected.

One significant cause among many is the concept of merits or Vipaka energy. In brief, Vipaka energy refers to the idea that our thoughts, words, and actions do not vanish or stop there. This is because all of these are energy transferred from our minds. According to the conservation of energy, we know that energy cannot be created or destroyed but can be transferred and stored as potential energy. This energy is called ‘Vipaka energy’ and it can manifest when conditions are suitable or ‘matches’. For instance, fire can only ignite when there is something combustible nearby and you can only burn your hand if you have the Vipaka and fire is present. If the causes arise then the burning of your hand is inevitable. Similarly, Vipaka energy is like dormant seeds. When the temperature, carbon dioxide, fertiliser, etc is present then the peach tree is inevitable. Vipaka energy can influence the emergence of specific ideas as well. 

In the story, whether it's the decision to give the car to a particular person, forgetting about the CD, or the impulse to listen to its contents, all these are also effects of Vipaka at play. We can postulate that it was because of a good deed that he had done that created the seed of opportunity. This explanation, though simplified, underscores the interconnectedness and causal nature of events in our lives and the universe. It highlights an intriguing possibility.  Coincidences might not be random at all, but rather the culmination of invisible forces – the seeds we sow through our thoughts and actions – blooming in unexpected ways. Whether you view it as Vipaka energy or simply a deeper understanding of cause and effect, this perspective adds a layer of meaning to the seemingly random encounters in our lives.

However, the human mind, which is ignorant, is wired to seek patterns and create stories. We excel at finding connections, even where none exist. While probability theory explains that coincidences are statistically inevitable, it doesn't account for why we find them so intriguing and meaningful. This tendency, known as apophenia, can make events feel more significant than they are. We latch onto the emotional impact and weave narratives around them, imbuing them with a sense of meaning or destiny. 

So, is it random that there you now have a budding desire to watch Kung Fu Panda, again?